Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
