Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
